Objective We evaluated prognostic factors for pediatric drowning patients. The association between functional outcomes and clinical factors was investigated.
Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted using data for pediatric drowning patients from the Korean Community-based Severe Trauma Survey from 2016 to 2020. The primary outcome was a good prognosis at discharge, defined as a Glasgow Outcome Scale score of 5. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate independent factors associated with the primary outcome.
Results From 237,616 patients, we identified 406 drowning patients aged ≤19 years (mean age, 8.8 years). At discharge, 41.0% of those patients had a good recovery. The absence of prehospital cardiac arrest (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 98.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 32.9–295.8), indoor location (aOR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.7–9.3), and transfer to a high-volume hospital (aOR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.1–5.8) were significant independent factors associated with a good outcome. Age, sex, the intent of injury, and prehospital time were not associated with the outcome.
Conclusion Our study identified independent prognostic factors for drowning patients, highlighting the importance of prehospital conditions and hospital care settings in determining outcomes. These findings could be useful in developing clinical strategies for managing such patients.
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Objective This study investigated the associations between paraspinal muscle measurements on chest computed tomography and clinical outcomes of elderly patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods This single-center, retrospective, observational study analyzed elderly patients (≥65 years) with CAP hospitalized through an emergency department between March 2020 and December 2022. We collected their baseline characteristics and laboratory data at the time of admission. The paraspinal muscle index and attenuation were calculated at the level of the 12th thoracic vertebra using chest computed tomography taken within 48 hours before or after admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the association between paraspinal muscle measurements and 28-day mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic predictive power. Results Of the 338 enrolled patients, 60 (17.8%) died within 28 days after admission. A high paraspinal muscle index was associated with low 28-day mortality in elderly patients with CAP (adjusted odds ratio, 0.994; 95% confidence interval, 0.992–0.997). The area under the ROC curve for the muscle index was 0.75, which outperformed the pneumonia severity index and the CURB-65 (confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 years) metric, both of which showed an AUC of 0.64 in predicting mortality. Conclusion A high paraspinal muscle index was associated with low 28-day mortality in patients aged 65 years or older with CAP.
Rectus femoris and vastus intermedius muscle thickness as a predictor of mortality in elderly patients with pneumonia İlker Şirin, Nur Vahapoğlu Vural, Mustafa Yılmaz Alkan, Mert Şahin, Gülşah Çıkrıkçı Işık, Ahmet Burak Erdem, Rasime Pelin Kavak The American Journal of Emergency Medicine.2025; 95: 200. CrossRef
Objective Effective triage of febrile patients in the emergency department is crucial during times of overcrowding to prioritize care and allocate resources, especially during pandemics. However, available triage tools often require laboratory data and lack accuracy. We aimed to develop a simple and accurate triage tool for febrile patients by modifying the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score.
Methods We retrospectively analyzed data from 7,303 febrile patients and created modified versions of qSOFA using factors identified through multivariable analysis. The performance of these modified qSOFAs in predicting in-hospital mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).
Results Through multivariable analysis, the identified factors were age (“A” factor), male sex (“M” factor), oxygen saturation measured by pulse oximetry (SpO2; “S” factor), and lactate level (“L” factor). The AUROCs of ASqSOFA (in-hospital mortality: 0.812 [95% confidence interval, 0.789–0.835]; ICU admission: 0.794 [95% confidence interval, 0.771–0.817]) were simple and not inferior to those of other more complex models (e.g., ASMqSOFA, ASLqSOFA, and ASMLqSOFA). ASqSOFA also displayed significantly higher AUROC than other triage scales, such as the Modified Early Warning Score and Korean Triage and Acuity Scale. The optimal cutoff score of ASqSOFA for the outcome was 2, and the score for redistribution to a lower level emergency department was 0.
Conclusion We demonstrated that ASqSOFA can be employed as a simple and efficient triage tool for emergency febrile patients to aid in resource distribution during overcrowding. It also may be applicable in prehospital settings for febrile patient triage.
Objective According to the 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines on pulmonary embolism (PE), prognosis is calculated using the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), a complex score with debated validity, or simplified PESI (sPESI). We have developed and validated a new risk score for in-hospital mortality (IHM) of patients with PE in the emergency department.
Methods This retrospective, dual-center cohort study was conducted in the emergency departments of two third-level university hospitals. Patients aged >18 years with a contrast-enhanced computed tomography-confirmed PE were included. Clinical variables and laboratory tests were evaluated blindly to IHM. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify the new score’s predictors, and the new score was compared with the PESI, sPESI, and shock index.
Results A total of 1,358 patients were included in this study: 586 in the derivation cohort and 772 in the validation cohort, with a global 10.6% of IHM. The PATHOS scores were developed using independent variables to predict mortality: platelet count, age, troponin, heart rate, oxygenation, and systolic blood pressure. The PATHOS score showed good calibration and high discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77–0.89) in the derivation population and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68–0.80) in the validation cohort, which is significantly higher than the PESI, sPESI, and shock index in both cohorts (P<0.01 for all comparisons).
Conclusion PATHOS is a simple and effective prognostic score for predicting IHM in patients with PE in an emergency setting.
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Objective Carbon monoxide (CO) activates intravascular neutrophils through platelet-neutrophil aggregates, which cause neutrophil degranulation. This process causes the release of myeloperoxidase (MPO), proteases, and reactive oxygen species. The MPO index (MPXI) is a newly reported inflammatory marker that reflects the MPO level within neutrophils. The MPXI in conditions associated with neutrophil activation depends on the net effect of azurophil degranulation. This study aimed to determine whether the MPXI can predict neurocognitive prognosis 1 month after acute CO poisoning.
Methods We included patients aged ≥16 years with acute CO poisoning from a cohort at a single tertiary academic hospital in Wonju, Korea, between January 2010 and May 2021. Data from 699 patients were analyzed. The neurocognitive outcome was assessed using Global Deterioration Scale scores and classified as favorable (score, 1–3 points) or poor (score, 4–7 points). The MPXI was determined within 1 hour of arrival to the emergency department.
Results Among the 699 patients, 52 (7.4%) showed poor outcomes. The median MPXI of the patients in the poor outcome group was higher than that of the favorable outcome group (0.85 vs. 0.2, P=0.189). However, a significant difference was not found between the favorable and poor outcome groups, and MPXI was not a significant variable in multivariate logistic regression.
Conclusion The MPXI evaluated in the emergency department did not differ based on neurocognitive outcome at 1 month after acute CO poisoning.
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Objective To examine the association of inferior vena cava (IVC) diameter ratio measured using computed tomography with outcomes in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB).
Methods A single-center retrospective observational study was conducted on consecutive patients with GIB who presented to the emergency department. The IVC diameter ratio was calculated by dividing the maximum transverse and anteroposterior diameters perpendicular to it. The association of the IVC diameter ratio with outcomes was examined using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the IVC diameter ratio was calculated, and the sensitivity and specificity, including the cutoff values, were computed.
Results In total, 585 patients were included in the final analysis. The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.6% (n=27). The IVC diameter ratio was significantly associated with higher in-hospital mortality in multivariable logistic regression analysis (odds ratio, 1.793; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.239–2.597; P=0.002). The AUC of the IVC diameter ratio for in-hospital mortality was 0.616 (95% CI, 0.498–0.735). With a cutoff of the IVC diameter ratio (≥2.1), the sensitivity and specificity for predicting in-hospital mortality were 44% (95% CI, 26%–65%) and 71% (95% CI, 67%–75%), respectively.
Conclusion The IVC diameter ratio was independently associated with in-hospital mortality in patients with GIB. However, the AUC of the IVC diameter ratio for in-hospital mortality was low.
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Objective We aimed to compare the modified National Early Warning Score (mNEWS), quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, modified Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (mSIRS) score, and modified Search Out Severity (mSOS) score in predicting mortality and sepsis among patients suspected of first observed infections in the emergency department. The modified scores were created by removing variables for simplicity.
Methods This was a prospective cohort study that enrolled adult patients presenting at the emergency department with signs and symptoms suggesting infection. The mNEWS, qSOFA score, mSIRS score, and mSOS score were calculated using triage data. The SOFA score was a reference standard for sepsis diagnosis. All patients were monitored for up to 30 days after the initial visit to measure each scoring system’s ability to predict 30-day mortality and sepsis.
Results There were 260 patients included in the study. The 30-day mortality prediction with mNEWS ≥5 had the highest sensitivity (91.18%). The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the 30-day mortality prediction was mNEWS (0.607), followed by qSOFA (0.605), mSOS (0.550), and mSIRS (0.423). The sepsis prediction with mNEWS ≥5 had the highest sensitivity (96.48%). The highest AUC for the sepsis prediction was also mNEWS (0.685), followed by qSOFA (0.605), mSOS (0.480), and mSIRS (0.477).
Conclusion mNEWS was an acceptable scoring system screening tool for predicting mortality and sepsis in patients with a suspected infection.
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Objective This study aimed to clarify the relative prognostic value of each History, Electrocardiography, Age, Risk Factors, and Troponin (HEART) score component for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) within 3 months and validate the modified HEART (mHEART) score.
Methods This study evaluated the HEART score components for patients with chest symptoms visiting the emergency department from November 19, 2018 to November 19, 2019. All components were evaluated using logistic regression analysis and the scores for HEART, mHEART, and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) were determined using the receiver operating characteristics curve.
Results The patients were divided into a derivation (809 patients) and a validation group (298 patients). In multivariate analysis, age did not show statistical significance in the detection of MACE within 3 months and the mHEART score was calculated after omitting the age component. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curves for HEART, mHEART and TIMI scores in the prediction of MACE within 3 months were 0.88, 0.91, and 0.83, respectively, in the derivation group; and 0.88, 0.91, and 0.81, respectively, in the validation group. When the cutoff value for each scoring system was determined for the maintenance of a negative predictive value for a MACE rate >99%, the mHEART score showed the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (97.4%, 54.2%, 23.7%, and 99.3%, respectively).
Conclusion Our study showed that the mHEART score better detects short-term MACE in high-risk patients and ensures the safe disposition of low-risk patients than the HEART and TIMI scores.
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Objective The number of deaths due to acute poisoning (AP) is on the increase. It is crucial to predict AP patient mortality to identify those requiring intensive care for providing appropriate patient care as well as preserving medical resources. The aim of this study is to predict the risk of in-hospital mortality associated with AP using an artificial neural network (ANN) model.
Methods In this multicenter retrospective study, ANN and logistic regression models were constructed using the clinical and laboratory data of 1,304 patients seeking emergency treatment for AP. The ANN model was first trained on 912/1,304 (70%) randomly selected patients and then tested on the remaining 392/1,304 (30%). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used to evaluate the mortality prediction of the two models.
Results Age, endotracheal intubation status, and intensive care unit admission were significant predictors of mortality in patients with AP in the multivariate logistic regression model. The ANN model indicated age, Glasgow Coma Scale, intensive care unit admission, and endotracheal intubation status were critical factors among the 12 independent variables related to in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was significantly higher in the ANN model compared to the logistic regression model.
Conclusion This study establishes that the ANN model could be a valuable tool for predicting the risk of death following AP. Thus, it may facilitate effective patient triage and improve the outcomes.
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Objective This study aimed to compare the outcomes of adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) before and after the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in a large metropolitan city.
Methods This before-and-after observational study used a prospective citywide OHCA registry. Adult patients with emergency medical service-treated OHCA, with presumed cardiac etiology, pre- and post-COVID-19 outbreak were enrolled. The study period spanned 2 months, starting from February 18, 2020. The control period was 2 months from February 18, 2019. The primary and secondary outcomes were good neurologic outcome and survival to hospital discharge, respectively. The association between the COVID-19 outbreak and OHCA outcomes was assessed using multivariable logistic regression analysis.
Results This study analyzed 297 OHCA patients (control period, 145; study period, 152). The bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation rates were 64.8% and 60.5% during the control and study periods, respectively. Response and on-scene times increased by 2 minutes, supraglottic airway use increased by 35.6%, and mechanical chest compression device use increased by 13% post-COVID-19 outbreak. Good neurologic outcome was significantly lower during the study period in overall OHCAs (adjusted odds ratio, 0.23; 95% confidence interval, 0.05–0.98) and in witnessed OHCAs (adjusted odds ratio, 0.14; 95% confidence interval, 0.02–0.90). No significant difference was found in the survival to hospital discharge of OHCA patients between the two periods.
Conclusion During the COVID-19 pandemic, the response and on-scene times were longer, and good neurologic outcome was significantly lower than that in the control period.
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Objective To evaluate the prognostic factors associated with the sustained return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and survival to hospital discharge in traumatic out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (TOHCA) patients without prehospital ROSC.
Methods We analyzed Korean nationwide data from the Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Surveillance, and included adult TOHCA patients without prehospital ROSC from January 2012 to December 2016. The primary outcome was sustained ROSC (>20 minutes). The secondary outcome was survival to discharge. Multivariate analysis was performed to investigate factors associated with the outcomes of TOHCA patients.
Results Among 142,905 cases of OHCA, 8,326 TOHCA patients were investigated. In multivariate analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR], 1.326; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.103–1.594; P=0.003), and an initial shockable rhythm (OR, 1.956; 95% CI, 1.113–3.439; P=0.020) were significantly associated with sustained ROSC. Compared with traffic crash, collision (OR, 1.448; 95% CI, 1.086–1.930; P=0.012) was associated with sustained ROSC. Fall (OR, 0.723; 95% CI, 0.589– 0.888; P=0.002) was inversely associated with sustained ROSC. Male sex (OR, 1.457; 95% CI, 1.026–2.069; P=0.035) and an initial shockable rhythm (OR, 4.724; 95% CI, 2.451–9.106; P<0.001) were significantly associated with survival to discharge. Metropolitan city (OR, 0.728; 95% CI, 0.541–0.980; P=0.037) was inversely associated with survival to discharge. Compared with traffic crash, collision (OR, 1.745; 95% CI, 1.125–2.708; P=0.013) was associated with survival to discharge.
Conclusion Male sex, an initial shockable rhythm, and collision could be favorable factors for sustained ROSC, whereas fall could be an unfavorable factor. Male sex, non-metropolitan city, an initial shockable rhythm, and collision could be favorable factors in survival to discharge.
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Objective The predictors of poor prognosis in heat stroke (HS) remain unknown. This study investigated the predictive factors of poor prognosis in patients with HS.
Methods Data were obtained and analyzed from the health records of patients diagnosed with heat illness at Ajou university hospital between January 2008 and December 2017. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors of poor prognosis.
Results Thirty-six patients (median age, 54.5 years; 33 men) were included in the study. Poor prognosis was identified in 27.8% of the study population (10 patients). The levels of S100B protein, troponin I, creatinine, alanine aminotransferase, and serum lactate were statistically significant in the univariate analysis. Multiple regression analysis revealed that poor prognosis was significantly associated with an increased S100B protein level (odds ratio, 177.37; 95% confidence interval, 2.59 to 12,143.80; P=0.016). The S100B protein cut-off level for predicting poor prognosis was 0.610 μg/L (area under the curve, 0.906; 95% confidence interval, 0.00 to 1.00), with 86% sensitivity and 86% specificity.
Conclusion An increased S100B protein level on emergency department admission is an independent prognostic factor of poor prognosis in patients with HS. Elevation of the S100B protein level represents a potential target for specific and prompt therapies in these patients.
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Comatose cardiac arrest patients frequently experience cardiogenic shock or recurrent arrest. Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) can be used to salvage patients with cardiogenic shock or cardiac arrest refractory to conventional therapies. However, in comatose cardiac arrest patients whose neurologic recovery is uncertain, the use of ECMO is restricted because it requires considerable financial and human resources. Amplitude-integrated electroencephalography is an easily applicable, real-time electroencephalography monitoring tool that has been increasingly used to monitor brain activity in comatose cardiac arrest patients. We describe our experience of using amplitude-integrated electroencephalography in decision-making to place ECMO for comatose cardiac arrest patients whose eventual neurologic recovery appeared uncertain at the time of ECMO placement.
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Objective To test the hypothesis that the quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) score, derived from vital signs taken during triage and recommended by current sepsis guidelines for screening patients with infections for organ dysfunction, is not sensitive enough to predict the risk of mortality in emergency department (ED) sepsis patients.
Methods Patients diagnosed with severe sepsis and septic shock using the old definition between May 2014 and April 2015 were retrospectively reviewed in three urban tertiary hospital EDs. The sensitivities of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, qSOFA, and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores ≥2 were compared using McNemar’s test. Diagnostic performances were evaluated using specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value.
Results Among the 928 patients diagnosed with severe sepsis or septic shock using the old definition, 231 (24.9%) died within 28 days. More than half of the sepsis patients (493/928, 53.1%) and more than one-third of the mortality cases (88/231, 38.1%) had a qSOFA score <2. The sensitivity of a qSOFA score ≥2 was 61.9%, which was significantly lower than the sensitivity of SIRS ≥2 (82.7%, P<0.001) and SOFA ≥2 (99.1%, P<0.001). The specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of a qSOFA score ≥2 for 28-day mortality were 58.1%, 32.9%, and 82.2%, respectively.
Conclusion The current clinical criteria of the qSOFA are less sensitive than the SIRS assessment and SOFA to predict 28-day mortality in ED patients with sepsis.
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Objective Despite increased survival in patients with cardiac arrest, it remains difficult to determine patient prognosis at the early stage. This study evaluated the prognosis of cardiac arrest patients using brain injury, inflammation, cardiovascular ischemic events, and coagulation/fibrinolysis markers collected 24, 48, and 72 hours after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC).
Methods From January 2011 to December 2016, we retrospectively observed patients who underwent therapeutic hypothermia. Blood samples were collected immediately and 24, 48, and 72 hours after ROSC. Neuron-specific enolase (NSE), S100-B protein, procalcitonin, troponin I, creatine kinase-MB, pro-brain natriuretic protein, D-dimer, fibrin degradation product, antithrombin-III, fibrinogen, and lactate levels were measured. Prognosis was evaluated using GlasgowPittsburgh cerebral performance categories and the predictive accuracy of each marker was evaluated. The secondary outcome was whether the presence of multiple markers improved prediction accuracy.
Results A total of 102 patients were included in the study: 39 with good neurologic outcomes and 63 with poor neurologic outcomes. The mean NSE level of good outcomes measured 72 hours after ROSC was 18.50 ng/mL. The area under the curve calculated on receiver operating characteristic analysis was 0.92, which showed the best predictive power among all markers included in the study analysis. The relative integrated discrimination improvement and categoryfree net reclassification improvement models showed no improvement in prognostic value when combined with all other markers and NSE (72 hours).
Conclusion Although biomarker combinations did not improve prognostic accuracy, NSE (72 hours) showed the best predictive power for neurological prognosis in patients who received therapeutic hypothermia.
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